Saturday, October 24, 2009

The Greens


To date M.Shriek has largely concentrated on the dominant political force in Moreland, the ALP.

However, a pluralistic democracy requires some form of legitimate alternative. The following two posts detail the two foremost political alternatives in Moreland: The Greens and The Liberal Party.

At the local and state level, the primary political opposition is The Greens.

Political performance to date
So far the Greens have made inroads to political fortune in Moreland without achieving compelling success. There are two Greens on the City Council of Moreland, and the Greens have had a presence on Moreland Council for 8 years.

At state level, the City of Moreland captures the seats of Brunswick and Pascoe Vale, as well as a slice of Preston. In Pascoe Vale in 2006, the Greens polled just over 12%, an increase of about 1000 votes from 2002 - modest efforts by anybody's standards.

However, in Brunswick the story is different. Those who have spent a bit of time around Brunswick will know there have been some significant demographic changes in the past 10 years. Older migrants are moving out and younger chats are moving in. In 2002, The Greens polled the seoncd most first preference votes, just over 24%, against the incumbent Carlo Carli. In 2006, Greens candidate Cyndi Dawes raised this to just under 30% of first preference votes. With Liberal Party preferences, this put The Greens at 46.37% of the two party preferred vote.

The Labor vote in Brunswick dropped by some 5% between 2002 and 2006. Further demographic change, a further drop for the ALP primary vote, and Liberal preferences will see The Greens win Brunswick in the State Election next year. It promises to be a doozy.

Readers will recall that the ALP candidate in the State Election next year is Jane Garrett. The Greens have not yet announced their candidate for Brunswick, but M.Shriek imagines that having performed so well last time, Cyndi Dawes will have another go.

How active are The Greens in the hyperlocality of Moreland?

There is a barebones information page on the Victorian Greens website, but of more interest is the Moreland Greens local site, Green Moreland City. Green Moreland City is a rather nifty drupal site which nonetheless needs some love. The last post from the Moreland Greens was to announce the results of the November 2008 Local Government elections - some 12 months ago!


Prospects for the Future


As this DHS map shows, Brunswick is one of the wealthiest parts of Moreland. The Australian Bureau of Statistics 2006 Census data indicates that Moreland is the youngest population in Moreland:

15-24 years 2006
Brunswick 16.00%
Coburg 13.50%
Pascoe Vale 11.10%
Fawkner 11.60%
Glenroy 12.00%
25-54 years
Brunswick 54.10%
Coburg 46.80%
Pascoe Vale 43.10%
Fawkner 36.00%
Glenroy 39.50%
55-64 years
Brunswick 7.30%
Coburg 8.20%
Pascoe Vale 8.00%
Fawkner 8.40%
Glenroy 9.00%
65+ years
Brunswick 11.50%
Coburg 14.00%
Pascoe Vale 20.10%
Fawkner 24.00%
Glenroy 21.30%

And if Cr Jo Connellan's election results are anything to go by, The Greens are very politically popular in Brunswick.


So are the Greens the real political alternative in the seat of Brunswick? Or is an independent more likely to pose a serious challenge to ALP new-comer Jane Garrett?

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